This report aims to assess the traffic crash risk over the Christmas/New Year holiday period (henceforth referred to as the Christmas holiday period) 2013/14.
The analysis in this report compares data from previous Christmas holiday periods against year round results based on a daily average, using the full days around the holiday period. The date range is primarily from 2008/09 to 2012/13 financial years.
Methodology
The analysis in this report compares data from previous Christmas holiday periods against year round results based on a daily average, using the full days around the holiday period. The date range is primarily from 2008/09 to 2012/13 financial years.
Crashes are grouped into four categories (fatal, serious, minor and non injury) based on the severity of the worst injury. ‘Injury’ crashes, when referred to in this report, include all fatal, serious and minor crashes. Analysis of all fatal and serious crashes combined was also undertaken, however due to the small dataset, statistical analysis was unable to be undertaken on fatal crashes alone.
Key Results
The official Christmas holiday period starts at 1600 hours on Tuesday 24 December 2013 and ends at 0600 hours Friday 3 January 2014.
Analysis indicates that the following trends occur over the Christmas holiday period:
- The national crash risk for injury crashes is likely to be lower during the Christmas holiday period than year round; however, the crash risk for fatal/serious crashes is likely to be higher. This indicates that while in comparison to year round there may be fewer crashes over the Christmas holiday period, the crashes that may occur are likely to be more serious.
- Crash risk is likely to shift away from major metropolitan areas such as Waitematā, Auckland City, Counties Manukau, Wellington and Canterbury Districts, towards traditional summer holiday destinations such as Northland, Bay of Plenty, Eastern and Tasman Districts.
- All districts, except Auckland City District, are likely to experience an increase in the percentage of injury crashes occurring on the open road.
- In the absence of the usual commuter rush hour, traffic is likely to peak between 1100 and 1300 hours. Consequently, the associated crash risk is likely to centre around the middle of the day (1100 to 1700 hours).
- There is likely to be little or no increase in late night crash risk, compared to year round, with the exception of Christmas Day, Boxing Day and late night New Year’s Eve/early morning New Year’s Day.
- The percentage of crashes relating to poor handling, speed and alcohol are likely to increase for both injury and fatal/serious crashes, compared to year round. Additionally, the percentage of crashes with fatigue as a contributing factor is likely to significantly increase. The three highest vehicle movement types likely to result in crashes are cornering, lost control or off road – straight road, and head on.